- Teams will at all times deal with a struggling receiving corps: Over the previous 5 seasons, groups that completed with an explosive go price below 12% have drafted a large receiver or tight finish by the tip of Day 2 in 80% of situations (20 out of 25).
- Seven groups in 2024 match this development and will goal WRs or TEs early: The Patriots, Browns, Bears, Commanders, Giants, Raiders and Chiefs all ranked beneath the 12% threshold and are probably candidates so as to add receiving assist in the primary three rounds.
- PFF’s 2025 NFL Draft Guide is LIVE: This 12 months’s information is loaded with three-page draft profiles on a whole bunch of NFL draft prospects within the 2025 class.
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By the tip of Round 3 of the 2025 NFL Draft, 102 gamers may have heard their names known as — with group wants, positional worth and up to date efficiency developments all enjoying a job in these shaping early alternatives.
Before then, the pre-draft panorama can be full of hypothesis — attempting to match group must prospect suits and predict how the early rounds will unfold. While a lot of it’s educated guesswork and topic to the chaos of draft evening, historic developments and knowledge may help slender the probabilities and establish which groups usually tend to deal with sure wants early.
One constant driver of early-round selections, significantly at large receiver, is offensive inefficiency within the passing sport — and extra particularly, an absence of explosive performs.
In 2023, the league-wide price of explosive go performs (beneficial properties of 15-plus yards) dropped to only 13.5% — the bottom mark since 2007. Ten groups completed beneath the 12% threshold, and all 10 responded by drafting a pass-catcher inside the high 100 picks in 2024. Whether to exchange departing expertise, help a growing quarterback or just inject extra big-play potential, the information factors to a transparent development: when explosive performs dry up, entrance places of work act quick to repair it.
Teams with low explosive go charges in 2023 and their draft alternatives in 2024
Over the previous 5 seasons, 20 of the 25 groups that completed with an explosive go price below 12% went on to pick out a large receiver or tight finish by the tip of Day 2. Of these 20, eight had been first-round large receivers, together with 5 in 2024 alone.
Extending the pattern again to 2014, groups that completed beneath the 12 p.c mark in explosive go price have chosen a large receiver or tight finish in Rounds 1–3 the next 12 months 68 p.c of the time.
In 2024, seven groups completed beneath the 12 p.c mark in explosive pass-play price. If the latest development continues, a number of of them will probably goal a pass-catcher inside the first three rounds of the upcoming draft — so let’s take a more in-depth take a look at who may be in line so as to add a receiving weapon early.
New England Patriots (9.5% explosive go play proportion in 2024)
The Patriots had the doubtful distinction of ending final in explosive go performs in 2024, tallying simply 61 such receptions and turning into the one group within the league with a price below 10 p.c.
There’s some renewed optimism in New England, because of the arrival of younger quarterback Drake Maye and the return of Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator. The additions of Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins in free company also needs to give the passing sport a wanted carry.
The present large receiver room options a mixture of veterans and mid-to-late-round draft picks from the previous two lessons. New England used a second-round decide on Ja’Lynn Polk in 2024, and with a number of roster wants nonetheless unaddressed, the group might decide to attend on including one other receiving choice.
However, historical past suggests in any other case. In seven of the previous 10 years, the group that completed final in explosive pass-play price has used an early decide on a pass-catcher the next spring. The final group to buck that development was Green Bay in 2017. Even then, the Packers spent three Day 3 picks on large receivers within the 2018 draft.
Cleveland Browns (10.3% explosive go play proportion in 2024)
The Browns are robust candidates so as to add a pass-catcher early within the draft. With Jerry Jeudy now within the combine however an in any other case unproven depth chart behind him, Cleveland’s offense nonetheless wants assist — particularly after struggling to generate factors for a lot of final season.
If the Browns use the No. 2 general decide on a quarterback, it could make sense to observe that up by focusing on a large receiver with one in all their Day 2 alternatives. The want for a playmaker who can create after the catch is very urgent, as Cleveland’s large receiver group ranked thirty first in yards after the catch per reception (3.5) in 2024.
Chicago Bears (11.1% explosive go play proportion in 2024)
The Bears employed Ben Johnson with two objectives in thoughts: unlock Caleb Williams’ potential and switch Chicago right into a contender in a loaded NFC North.
At the NFL’s annual league assembly, Johnson made it clear that anticipated factors added (EPA) within the passing sport is among the most necessary metrics in at present’s NFL. His Lions offenses backed that up, rating third in each EPA per go play and explosive go price (16%) throughout his time as offensive coordinator.
While Chicago already has expertise at large receiver and tight finish, Johnson’s scheme may gain advantage from yet one more dynamic choice. If the Bears are considering large, Emeka Egbuka would convey the polish and reliability of a future WR1 — in spite of everything, his PFF comp is 9 aside from Amon-Ra St. Brown. If they’re after velocity, Matthew Golden — the quickest large receiver on the mix — might fill the Jameson Williams position Johnson featured in Detroit.
No matter how they strategy the draft, one factor is probably going: with Johnson calling the performs, the Bears received’t be close to the underside of the league in explosive passing once more.
Washington Commanders (11.1% explosive go play proportion in 2024)
The window seems to be open for Washington to make a run below its new regime. The Commanders have already taken steps to bolster the receiving corps by buying and selling for Deebo Samuel this offseason.
History presents a glimpse into how Washington has addressed this situation earlier than. The final two occasions the group ranked close to the underside of the league in explosive go performs — thirty second in 2020 (10.8%) and thirty first in 2018 (11.3%) — they responded by drafting Dyami Brown within the third spherical in 2021 and Terry McLaurin within the third spherical in 2019.
Adding one other early-round receiving choice to encompass Jayden Daniels might go a great distance in accelerating his improvement and elevating the offense’s ceiling.
New York Giants (11.1% explosive go play proportion in 2024)
One of the league’s premier deep passers, Russell Wilson, joined the Giants this offseason in hopes of jumpstarting a struggling aerial assault. Despite spending a excessive decide on Malik Nabers final 12 months, New York improved solely marginally in explosive go price — from thirtieth in 2023 to twenty eighth in 2024.
A extra steady quarterback scenario might actually assist, however the lack of huge performs stays a priority. Since Brian Daboll took over in 2022, the Giants have posted a league-low 11% explosive go price. Adding one other dynamic pass-catcher early within the draft could be a logical subsequent step.
Las Vegas Raiders (11.3% explosive go play proportion in 2024)
The Raiders could have landed their big-play tight finish of the long run in Brock Bowers, however the large receiver room nonetheless wants reinforcements. Of the receivers at present on the roster, solely Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker have reached double-digit explosive receptions (15-plus yards) of their careers.
With Geno Smith now at quarterback, the necessity for downfield weapons turns into much more urgent — his 28 deep landing passes (20-plus air yards) since 2022 lead all NFL quarterbacks. Two draft-eligible wideouts who might assist instantly in that space are Tetairoa McMillan and Tre Harris, who rank first and second in explosive receptions within the FBS since 2022 with 34 and 29, respectively.
Kansas City Chiefs (11.8% explosive go play proportion in 2024)
The chance of Kansas City including one other pass-catching weapon early within the draft can’t be dominated out — even with latest excessive investments at large receiver.
Another place to observe: tight finish. The Chiefs used 12 personnel on the fourth-highest price within the league final season (34%), and with All-Pro Travis Kelce getting into his thirteenth season, planning for the long run is sensible. Several tight finish prospects rank inside or close to the highest 100 on the PFF large board, giving the defending AFC champions a number of choices to bolster the place.