New Delhi:
Syria’s future hinges on uncertainty after the abrupt fall of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Once thought unassailable, Assad’s rule collapsed beneath the strain of a speedy offensive led by a gaggle known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), previously referred to as the Al-Nusra Front affiliated with terror group Al-Qaeda, and allied factions.
Bashar al-Assad got here to energy in 2000, succeeding his father, Hafez al-Assad, who dominated Syria with an iron grip for almost three a long time. Initially, there have been hopes that Bashar would convey reform and openness to Syria. However, these aspirations had been dashed as he maintained the repressive construction of his father’s regime.
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Assad’s legacy will without end be marred by his response to the protests in 2011, which escalated right into a brutal civil struggle. Over half one million individuals have been killed, six million turned refugees, and numerous extra are internally displaced. With army backing from Russia and Iran, Assad survived in opposition to a fragmented opposition, counting on Russian air energy and Iranian-backed militias like Hezbollah.
Preoccupied with their very own struggles – Russia in Ukraine and Iran dealing with regional challenges – neither may supply vital assist. Within days, the rebels captured key cities like Aleppo, Hama, and Homs, earlier than advancing into Damascus itself.
A Fragile Transition
Rebel chief Abu Mohammed al-Golani, identified now by his actual title, Ahmed al-Sharaa, introduced the formation of a transitional authority. Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali has been appointed because the caretaker of state establishments.
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In a press release, al-Jalali expressed his willingness to cooperate with any management chosen by the Syrian individuals.
Despite these efforts, HTS’s historical past – rooted in al-Qaeda – casts an extended shadow over its guarantees of a diplomatic and nationalist strategy. Scepticism abounds relating to its long-term intentions and skill to control a fractured nation.
The finish of Assad’s rule doesn’t instantly translate to peace for Syrians. HTS’s previous affiliation with extremist teams raises fears of a harsh, authoritarian rule beneath the guise of Islamist governance. Millions of displaced Syrians, each throughout the nation and overseas, face an unsure future as they watch the unfolding occasions with hope and trepidation.
The Russian Setback
The fall of Assad marks a blow to Russian affect within the Middle East. Since its intervention in 2015, Russia has been the regime’s most steadfast supporter, sustaining strategic property such because the Tartous naval facility and the Hmeimim airbase in Latakia. These bases are very important for projecting energy throughout the Mediterranean and into Africa.
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However, Russia’s army focus is at the moment consumed by its struggle in Ukraine. The lack of management in Syria raises questions on Moscow’s capability to safeguard its strategic footholds within the area.
Iran Losing The Axis Of Resistance
For Iran, Assad’s downfall disrupts the “Axis of Resistance” that connects Tehran to Hezbollah in Lebanon by means of Syria. This community has been essential for transferring weapons and exerting affect within the area. With Hezbollah weakened from its latest battle with Israel and Iran’s proxies in Yemen and Iraq beneath strain, Tehran’s struggle technique will want a special strategy.
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Iran’s preoccupation with Israel, which it views as an existential risk, additional limits its capability to reply successfully in Syria. Israel’s latest focusing on of Iranian property has compounded these challenges, leaving Tehran on the defensive.
Turkey’s Role
Turkey’s function in Assad’s fall stays ambiguous. While President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had lengthy advocated for a diplomatic decision to the Syrian battle, his calls had been persistently rebuffed by Assad. Turkey, house to over three million Syrian refugees, has a vested curiosity in resolving the battle to facilitate their return.
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Ankara has denied direct involvement within the HTS offensive, however analysts counsel that Turkey’s tacit approval or oblique assist could have performed a job. Erdogan’s priorities embrace securing Turkey’s borders and countering Kurdish militias in northern Syria.
Israel’s Strategic Thinking
For Israel, the collapse of Assad’s regime represents each alternative and danger. The fall of Iran’s major ally in Syria disrupts the availability chain to Hezbollah, however the emergence of HTS as a dominant pressure introduces new uncertainties.
Israel has strengthened its presence alongside the Golan Heights, getting ready for potential spillovers or makes an attempt by rebels to grab Syrian military stockpiles. The Israeli army can be cautious of Iran and Hezbollah exploiting the chaos to accumulate superior weaponry.