- Okay-Means Clustering helps break down latest offensive traits: Using metrics like EPA per play and PFF grades, offenses are grouped into tiers to higher perceive workforce strengths and weaknesses from the previous three seasons.
- Scheme range does not all the time imply higher outcomes: While groups just like the Ravens thrive with different seems to be, others just like the 49ers and Chiefs dominate regardless of being extra predictable of their schematic strategy.
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Estimated Reading Time: 8 minutes
As we transfer deeper into the NFL offseason, it is a good time to look again at how offenses have carried out in recent times and what every workforce tends to favor schematically. And PFF has a treasure trove of information and superior metrics that supply a transparent lens into the offensive traits shaping the league.
To make sense of all of it, we’re turning to certainly one of our go-to instruments: Okay-Means Clustering. This algorithm takes a variety of inputs — similar to anticipated factors added (EPA) per play, PFF grades and extra — and kinds groups into “clusters” based mostly on shared traits. Each cluster teams related offenses, permitting us to attract key insights and determine bigger traits throughout the NFL. It’s one of the vital efficient methods to remodel a posh knowledge set into one thing digestible and actionable.
Once we feed our chosen variables into the clustering algorithm, we’re left with a set of distinct offensive clusters (or tiers).
To set up a hierarchy amongst them, we’ve ordered the teams based mostly on their common anticipated factors added (EPA) per play. At the highest of the record are the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens, who, whereas falling in need of a Super Bowl berth, have constantly fielded the league’s best offenses over the previous three seasons.
As we transfer down the tiers, flaws turn out to be extra pronounced, whether or not on account of inefficiency, inconsistency or personnel limitations, maintaining these groups from becoming a member of the elite offensive teams.
Examining the cluster or tier averages throughout choose offensive metrics, the hole between the highest two teams is comparatively slender. Teams just like the 49ers, Lions and Eagles have benefited from sturdy offensive line play over this stretch, however they’ve been barely much less environment friendly on the bottom than the Ravens and Bills.
Since 2022, Tier 3 has included among the NFL’s highest-graded quarterbacks, with Joe Burrow incomes a league-best 93.5 passing grade, Patrick Mahomes rating fourth at 90.9, and Justin Herbert inserting fifth at 89.8. Baker Mayfield has additionally been productive throughout that span, throwing 87 landing passes, the sixth-most throughout common and postseason video games.
Still, the constant quarterback play on this tier has typically been held again by underperforming floor video games.
When plotting every workforce’s cross and rush anticipated factors added (EPA) per play, the groups on this tier all fall above the pattern line, an indication that their run video games haven’t complemented their passing effectivity.
The Buccaneers could have addressed that imbalance by discovering an answer in Bucky Irving, enhancing from a league-worst 3.5 yards per carry in 2023 to the third-best mark at 5.2 in 2024.
Using all the variables included within the clustering algorithm, we will generate a remaining strengths and weaknesses desk for every tier. Strengths are outlined as metrics the place the tier ranks within the prime two throughout all clusters, whereas weaknesses are these the place it ranks within the backside two. While these summaries received’t apply completely to each workforce — there are all the time outliers — they function correct representations of the clusters as a complete.
Offensive Scheme Analysis
To wrap up our offensive roadmap, we will study scheme traits utilizing a way known as principal part evaluation. This method reduces a broad set of variables — together with play-action price, RPO price, utilization of shifts and movement and run idea frequencies — right into a smaller set of “principal parts.”
By plotting the primary two parts, which account for probably the most variance within the dataset, we will visualize how equally (or in a different way) groups function by way of offensive scheme.
The arrows point out the directional affect of particular variables on workforce placement. For occasion, shift/movement price and outdoors zone price push groups additional to the fitting on the plot. Teams that fall on the far proper — such because the Dolphins, Falcons and Vikings — usually come from the Shanahan/McVay teaching tree, together with the 49ers and Rams themselves. As anticipated, this offensive lineage is understood for emphasizing broad zone runs and in depth use of presnap shifts and movement.
Another lens by way of which we will consider offensive schemes is Shannon Entropy, which measures how predictable an offense relies on schematic tendencies. For instance, a workforce that operates completely out of shotgun formations could be thought-about extra predictable than one which blends below middle, pistol and shotgun seems to be. To make issues much more fascinating, we will plot offensive predictability towards effectivity to discover whether or not extra numerous schemes result in higher outcomes.
As we will see, there’s little correlation between offensive scheme predictability and total effectivity over the previous three seasons. That leaves us with two terrifying propositions: going through the extremely environment friendly and schematically numerous Ravens, or attempting to cease groups just like the 49ers, Chiefs and Lions — offenses which might be much less numerous however equally dominant.
With this, we’ve constructed a complete roadmap of NFL offenses in recent times. As teaching staffs evolve and coordinators transfer into new roles — similar to Ben Johnson taking up in Chicago — this framework gives a beneficial software for forecasting what modifications we would see heading into the 2025 season.