• The Lions take the highest slot: Detroit completed the yr first in total PFF grade and is the best-coached workforce within the league.
• The Steelers are in peril: Pittsburgh began 10-3 however is now amid a four-game skid, throughout which each the offense and protection have been dangerous.
• 2025 NFL Draft season is right here: Try PFF’s best-in-class Mock Draft Simulator and study 2025’s high prospects whereas buying and selling and drafting to your favourite NFL workforce.
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The checklist of groups that might win Super Bowl 59 is right down to 14.
While any a type of groups theoretically has pretty much as good a shot as any to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, the fact is that some squads are merely far superior to the opposite playoff contenders.
Based on their regular-season efficiency, workforce expertise degree, teaching and expertise, beneath is the order of the groups with the best-to-worst shot of claiming victory in New Orleans on Feb. 9.
1. Detroit Lions
The Lions are the No. 1 workforce in PFF’s Power Rankings and the highest-graded workforce in soccer, which is mirrored of their 15-2 document. Despite battling a rash of accidents on protection, Detroit has typically seemed unstoppable for many of this season because of its robust stability and excellent teaching employees.
Offensively, the Lions are arguably the league’s finest unit, rating second in EPA per play and first in success fee. The mixture of elite playcalling from Ben Johnson, a multi-faceted assault (second in each passing and speeding EPA per play) and a loaded roster makes this group unbelievable. Even although Detroit’s protection slid to 13th in success fee from Week 12 onward, this group flashed its gelling in Week 18 by shutting down the Vikings — and it’ll solely get more healthy.
All the Lions must do to achieve their first Super Bowl is to win two video games in Ford Field, a constructing through which they went 7-2 through the common season. After bettering its roster following final yr’s NFC Championship run, it will be troublesome to choose in opposition to Detroit to not solely attain this yr’s Super Bowl however to win it.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
So a lot for that “fraudulent” 9-0 begin. Yes, some luck was concerned early on, however the Chiefs performed a cleaner model of soccer throughout their remaining 4 video games with starters — and no person will wish to face them (and their title panache) come playoff time.
Even although Kansas City’s offense is just 12th in EPA per play and 16th in success fee, the Chiefs nonetheless have Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, who’re top-16 in PFF grade within the final three years of postseason play. The workforce’s elite inside offensive line, different skill-position standouts and Andy Reid’s creativity make this offense scary in its personal proper. Although Steve Spagnuolo’s protection didn’t fare as properly — ending 14th in EPA allowed per play and 21st in success fee allowed — it nonetheless has the likes of Chris Jones, Trent McDuffie, George Karlaftis and Jaylen Watson, plus it has been robust within the final two postseasons.
The greatest issues for the Chiefs going into the playoffs can be red-zone offense and cross safety. But from Weeks 13-17, Kansas City performed higher contained in the opponents’ 20-yard line, producing a 43.8% success fee (7th) whereas changing 55.6% of drives into touchdowns (19th). With Kansas City solely needing to win two video games at Arrowhead Stadium — the place Mahomes has misplaced solely twice within the playoffs — it’s in all probability silly to wager in opposition to the Chiefs.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
What makes the Eagles so scary is the a number of methods they’ll win. Philadelphia is the one workforce within the league to rank within the high six in each offensive and defensive EPA per play, and it’s simply dotted with expertise up and down its roster.
On offense, Kellen Moore’s group boasts the third-highest-graded offensive line, powered by Jordan Mailata — the highest-graded participant in all of soccer. The Birds can gash you by way of Saquon Barkley and the run recreation, the place they’re third in EPA per play and second in yards earlier than contact per try, they usually can simply as simply punish corners with a cross recreation that includes A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, who each rank top-13 amongst receivers in PFF receiving grade. Meanwhile, Philly’s protection is elite in any respect three ranges, rating first in success fee.
Ghosts of final season’s wild-card exit in Tampa Bay may linger, however this Eagles workforce feels prefer it’s in a considerably higher place than a yr in the past. A limitation might be Jalen Hurts and his play underneath stress — the place his 43.5 PFF grade is 25th out of 30 qualifiers — however Philly has each alternative to at the very least attain the NFC Championship.
4. Baltimore Ravens
Real doubts began to creep in in regards to the legitimacy of the Ravens late within the yr, however these have been principally squashed courtesy of a four-game successful streak to shut out the season. With generational expertise on offense and a considerably improved protection, Baltimore is certainly an actual title contender.
Not sufficient will be stated about Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, who’re each the highest-graded gamers at their respective positions — and two of the three highest-graded offensive gamers within the league. Their excellence, mixed with a receiving corps that’s second in receiving grade, has fueled the NFL’s most effective offense. Moreover, the Ravens protection patched deep foundational leaks round midseason: since Week 10, Baltimore is second in EPA allowed per play and ninth in explosive passes surrendered.
How properly the Ravens’ offensive line performs can be crucial, because the group had points early within the yr and ended solely 19th in total grade. Skepticism about Jackson within the playoffs, the place he’s recorded solely a 62.8 profession total PFF grade, additionally received’t be erased till he performs extra constantly and even reaches the Super Bowl. Even then, this multi-faceted and proficient Ravens workforce is very formidable.
Highest-Graded Offensive Players in 2024 (Min. 500 Snaps)
5. Buffalo Bills
Some would possibly view this a bit low for a workforce that’s 13-4 and the AFC’s No. 2 seed, however the Bills have some issues that might loom massive come postseason.
Josh Allen and Buffalo’s offense typically isn’t one. The MVP candidate fueled an offense that ranks third in EPA per play, sitting top-four in each aspects of play. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s versatility in formations, playmakers in James Cook, Khalil Shakir and extra and a powerful sort out duo ought to be sufficient to compete for a title.
Even with Gregory Rousseau (83.1 total PFF grade) and Christian Benford (82.8 PFF protection grade), Buffalo’s protection may cause some fear. Since Week 10, the Bills rank 19th in EPA per play, 25th in success fee and 22nd in first downs allowed. A scarcity of expertise at linebacker and a secondary, which ranks solely twenty first in workforce protection grade, could sadly contribute additional to seemingly unending playoff disappointments.
6. Minnesota Vikings
Going 14-3, solely to be ranked No. 6 on this checklist, won’t appear truthful to the Vikings. At the identical time, Minnesota’s path to the Super Bowl as a wild-card entrant can be daunting, and uncertainties now have an effect on either side of the ball.
Sam Darnold has been one of many NFL’s breakout gamers this season and completed the common season ranked 10th in PFF passing grade. But in arguably his greatest check to this point, Darnold carried out at his worst, posting a season-low 44.5 PFF passing grade in opposition to a Lions protection down a number of affect starters. Darnold’s 3.6% turnover-worthy play fee — tied for the very best amongst any quarterback with 500-plus dropbacks — and lack of postseason expertise are troublesome.
Minnesota’s protection has been one of the vital efficient by superior metrics all season, sitting third in EPA per play and sixth in success fee. Yet the Vikings possess solely the 16th-best protection grade and are 17th in explosive passing play fee allowed since Week 12, which means their blitz-heavy protection can get carved up if opposing offenses deal with additional rushers properly.
Will Kevin O’Connell’s elite playcalling, an unbelievable receiving corps and a dominant edge-rushing tandem propel the Vikings to a deep street playoff run, or will Darnold and a subpar secondary restrict Minnesota’s wildly spectacular season? That query looks like a real toss-up, though the Vikings are unquestionably higher than a No. 5 seed.
7. Green Bay Packers
With robust items on either side of the ball, the Packers may have the components for a deep run, however they’ll must show their mettle in opposition to higher competitors.
Green Bay’s offense was typically robust for many of this yr, ending eighth in EPA per play and 11th in success fee. Josh Jacobs (90.6 PFF speeding grade) gives great stability to Jordan Love and a deep receiving group. Add Matt LaFleur’s ingenious playcalling, and the Packers offense received’t permit many defensive coordinators to sleep.
Additionally, Jeff Hafley’s protection confirmed indicators of promise in his first season, rating fourth in EPA allowed per play however 24th in success fee. Green Bay has game-changers in any respect three ranges in Rashan Gary (47 pressures), Edgerrin Cooper (84.0 total PFF grade) and Xavier McKinney (90.0 PFF protection grade).
So, why are the Packers solely No. 7? Not having Christian Watson (torn ACL) and Jaire Alexander (shoulder) is an enormous blow, and the workforce’s cross rush has been an issue all season. Secondary depth is also alarming, with just one nook (Carrington Valentine) producing above a 63.0 PFF protection grade.
Considering that the Packers went solely 2-5 in opposition to playoff groups, LaFleur’s squad should show it may well take care of the convention’s elites. Then once more, Green Bay shocked the world within the wild-card spherical final yr and is able to doing it but once more.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs rotated what seemed like a wayward season to win their fourth consecutive NFC South, however they’ll typically must depend on their high-powered offense in the event that they wish to make a run.
In his first yr with Todd Bowles, offensive coordinator Liam Coen could have carried out even higher than Dave Canales did in the identical place. Tampa Bay’s offense is fourth in passing EPA per play and eighth in speeding EPA per play. A whopping eighth common contributors recorded a 73.0-plus total PFF grade within the common season, highlighted by Bucky Irving (90.6) and Mike Evans (89.0).
Although the Buccaneers had early issues on protection, they’ve course-corrected to rank fourth in EPA per play and second in success fee since Week 10. The caveat is that that stretch of video games was nearly totally in opposition to poor offenses and nonetheless had troubles.
Tampa Bay nonetheless faces challenges in key areas, significantly with their cross rush, the place the workforce’s edge and inside defenders rank Sixteenth in pass-rush win fee, and in protection, the place their secondary holds the Sixteenth-best workforce PFF protection grade.
The Buccaneers have proven they’ll compete, notching wins over robust groups just like the Lions, Eagles (albeit an injury-depleted roster), and Chargers. They’ve additionally superior to the divisional spherical in three of the previous 4 seasons. Reaching that stage once more is properly inside their attain, however they’ll want Baker Mayfield to chop down on errors—his 25 turnover-worthy performs lead the league—and their secondary to solidify as Antoine Winfield Jr. makes his return.
9. Los Angeles Rams
Few groups enter the playoffs as scorching because the Rams, who have been 9-2 of their final 11 video games with starters taking part in. Even then, this workforce has defensive deficiencies that seem exhausting to beat.
Sean McVay’s offense is, but once more, a drive to be reckoned with — particularly with the trio of Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp on the sphere collectively. Since Nacua returned in Week 8, LA ranks 10th in EPA per play and fifth in explosive cross fee. Add in Kyren Williams (74.0 PFF speeding grade) and a strong offensive line, and the Rams will rating factors.
But the protection is the place the issues come up for the Rams. LA is just 27th in EPA allowed per play, 23rd in success fee allowed, 23rd in workforce protection grade and 27th in missed tackles. Even with Jared Verse (77 pressures) spearheading an excellent pass-rushing defensive position, the Rams’ secondary hasn’t lined properly all yr.
Will Stafford keep properly protected — the place he’s been a lot better than underneath stress — and propel an offensive explosion sufficient to account for a weaker protection? Los Angeles feels solely as possible so far as its offense will take it, however even which may not be sufficient.
10. Washington Commanders
For the Commanders to be on this place this quick is exceptional, however their odds of reaching New Orleans aren’t very excessive — simply 5%, per PFF ELO rankings.
Jayden Daniels emerged as one of many NFL’s brightest younger stars this yr, shining as a passer — the place he ranks fourth in PFF passing grade — and as a runner — the place his 88.2 PFF speeding grade is fourth amongst certified quarterbacks. Terry McLaurin (82.2 PFF receiving grade) was wonderful but once more, and Brian Robinson (plus Daniels) powered a top-five speeding offense by a number of superior metrics.
However, Dan Quinn’s protection wasn’t practically as sharp in 2024. Bobby Wagner (89.9 total PFF grade) is the one Commanders starter graded above 70.0 total. Washington sits 27th in workforce protection grade and 26th in pass-rush win fee amongst its edge defenders and defensive linemen.
Daniels’ movie-like rookie yr may very properly proceed by granting the Commanders their first playoff win because the 2005 season, however getting previous the divisional spherical could be exhausting to ascertain.
11. Los Angeles Chargers
Much just like the Commanders, the Chargers surpassed their preseason 9.0 over/underneath win complete, reaching the playoffs in Jim Harbaugh’s first yr. However, this workforce has flaws that may possible show deadly.
Justin Herbert turned in arguably his finest profession marketing campaign to this point, producing a 90.8 PFF passing grade (3rd) and a 91.7 total PFF grade (3rd) with a 6.1% big-time throw fee (4th). Even with Herbert’s near-flawless play and the emergence of Ladd McConkey (81.2 PFF receiving grade), Los Angeles’ offense hasn’t been overly dynamic. The Chargers are solely 13th in EPA per play, 18th in success fee and 15th in common yards per play.
LA’s bread and butter was its protection for a lot of the yr, a unit that completed the common season fifth in EPA per play and 10th in success fee. But preliminary dominance was stymied by dangerous performances in opposition to elite offenses, comparable to versus Baltimore, Cincinnati and Tampa Bay.
Harbaugh’s bunch ought to have the ability to attain the divisional spherical for the primary time since 2018, touchdown a positive matchup with the Texans. But until Herbert goes on a sustained heater and the protection pitches close to shutouts, the Chargers really feel shorthanded.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers
After beginning 10-3 with wins over groups just like the Commanders, Broncos and Chargers, Pittsburgh felt like a authentic AFC title risk. Then every part went downhill within the remaining 4 weeks of the season, and it doesn’t appear salvageable.
Pittsburgh’s offense seemed higher with Russell Wilson on the helm, however effectivity and manufacturing have each been a wrestle in opposition to elite defenses. Since Week 14, the Steelers are 31st in EPA per play, 25th in success fee and 30th in common yards per play. You know issues are going awry when George Pickens, far and away the workforce’s finest receiver, turns in a recreation like he did in a pivotal Week 18: seven targets, one catch, 0 yards, two drops, 42.4 PFF receiving grade.
What solely compounds the Steelers’ woes is a protection that has typically flatlined through the workforce’s greatest video games. Over the final 4 video games of the yr, Pittsburgh has ranked twenty fourth in EPA per play, twenty seventh in success fee and 30th in explosive passes allowed. This workforce nonetheless has prodigious expertise, particularly alongside its defensive position, however issues with communication (particularly on movement) and missed tackles have been devastating.
Wilson has confirmed his postseason mettle in years previous, and no person desires to see Cameron Heyward or T.J. Watt on the opposite aspect of the road of scrimmage in a win-or-go-home recreation. But given Pittsburgh’s extended playoff struggles — not successful a recreation because the 2016 season — and the way this workforce collapsed, even beating the Ravens could be an actual shock.
Pittsburgh Steelers’ Lowest-Graded Games of 2024
13. Denver Broncos
All reward is to ensure that Sean Payton mercifully ending Denver’s nine-year postseason drought, however the Broncos aren’t in a powerful place to make a ton of noise.
Denver’s protection was the most effective within the NFL within the common season. The Broncos are second in EPA per play, first in success fee and first in landing drive share allowed. Pat Surtain II (87.4 PFF protection grade) is the headliner, however this expertise is deep, as evidenced by 4 gamers racking up 53-plus pressures.
Payton’s offense is the foremost concern going into the wild-card spherical. The Broncos completed the common season 17th in EPA per play, 20th in success fee and 19th in first downs gained. Bo Nix (76.4 total PFF grade) performed higher than anticipated, however his 72.8 PFF passing grade nonetheless ranks 20th amongst qualifiers. Even behind one of many extra unsung offensive traces in soccer, Denver is 16th in common speeding yards earlier than contact, as no beginning ‘again eclipsed a 71.0 PFF speeding grade.
For the Broncos to beat the Bills, they’ll want Nix to make high-level throws down the sphere whereas leaning closely on a well-coached protection. Making a run as a No. 7 seed is daunting sufficient, however an absence of offensive playmakers and a rookie QB doesn’t bode properly.
14. Houston Texans
After getting into the 2024 season as one of many NFL’s actual Super Bowl contenders, the Texans turned in an especially disjointed and disappointing season. Yes, Houston received the AFC South for the second straight yr, however this workforce hasn’t seemed cohesive all yr.
Instead of ascending into one of many premier offenses in soccer, Bobby Slowik’s group was maligned for just about all the season. Injuries to Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell didn’t assist, however a foul run recreation (22nd in EPA per play) and inferior play from C.J. Stroud (45th percentile in avoiding detrimental performs) have sunk Houston. Throw in an inside offensive line that’s the second-lowest-graded within the NFL, and also you get an offense caught in impartial.
DeMeco Ryans’ protection was robust for a lot of the yr, rating sixth in EPA allowed per play and fourth in success fee allowed. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. mixed for 117 pressures, wrecking video games all yr, whereas Derek Stingley Jr. (74.9 PFF protection grade) holds the league lead in lowest catch fee allowed and passer score when focused. Still, 4 of Houston’s top-seven gamers in protection snaps generated a PFF protection grade beneath 63.0.
The odds that Stroud and the Texans offense lastly kick issues in gear after 19 weeks are, sadly, very low. This yr alone, Houston misplaced to the Titans and Jets whereas going 1-5 in opposition to playoff groups (with a type of losses a five-interception recreation from Jared Goff). It’s now troublesome to venture a number of confidence onto what appeared like an especially promising workforce going into the season.