NBC News checked out a number of demographic teams and which counties have the biggest proportion of a specific group dwelling there, as of the newest Census Bureau survey, which publishes estimates for 2018 to 2022 — particularly, the roughly 300 counties within the prime 10% of every group. For instance, Hinds County in Mississippi has one of many highest concentrations of Black folks within the nation, whereas Alameda County, California, with Asian Americans making up 32% of its inhabitants, has one of many highest concentrations of that racial group.
Experts level to turnout and dissatisfaction with the economic system because the driving forces behind the outcomes. However, shifts in voting patterns amongst sure demographics — whereas they shouldn’t be thought of the point of interest — are additionally seen, stated Ken Kollman, a political science professor on the University of Michigan.
“The important story is the comparatively low ranges of turnout for Harris in key Democratic locations in comparison with Biden in 2020,” Kollman stated. “It’s a turnout story.”
Kollman identified exit polls displaying a shift amongst Hispanic males, and added that Black males might have both voted extra for Trump or not turned out for Harris.
Asian American voters in each the Northeast and the West shifted towards Trump, with consultants suggesting that the economic system was a precedence for the citizens.
In California, Merced County — with one of many highest Asian American populations within the nation — went for Trump, regardless of its voters throwing their collective weight behind Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020.
A serious driver of Merced’s 17-point shift rightward was a smaller vote whole for Harris, who obtained 28% fewer votes than Biden did in 2020. Meanwhile Trump improved barely on his 2020 efficiency.
Riverside, one other California county the place Asian Americans have robust illustration, additionally flipped for the GOP in a photo-finish race determined by a couple of thousand votes.
However, the mathematics in Riverside regarded totally different from in Merced. Both candidates grew their vote totals in comparison with the earlier election cycle. But whereas Harris’ vote rely grew 21%, it was no match for Trump’s almost 50% enchancment.
When it got here to schooling, Trump improved his margin in counties with vital populations of each highschool diploma-holders and superior diploma recipients greater than the nationwide median.
However, the driving forces behind every tended to diverge. Across counties the place highschool graduates have been strongly represented, Trump’s vote totals held regular whereas Harris underperformed, dropping a bigger share of Biden’s 2020 coalition than another instructional class.
But in counties with the biggest share of superior diploma holders, Trump really gained votes whereas Harris shed them.