- A rookie season to recollect: Verse’s 77 regular-season pressures path solely Nick Bosa’s 80 for essentially the most by any rookie within the PFF period.
- Verse’s pass-rush metrics level to extra sack manufacturing: Double-digit sacks will probably be Verse’s ground within the close to future, so take the over on his 7.25-sack line.
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Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes
When it involves season-long NFL prop bets, most followers are wanting on the offensive aspect of the ball. Sack totals are one of many extra missed props, however PFF’s pass-rushing metrics give us a singular perception and edge when attacking these props.
Each season, a handful of participant sack props stand out, whether or not their quantity is just too excessive (and betting the underneath is an efficient name) or too low (betting the over). This yr, it is Rams edge Jared Verse, who’s at present slotted at an over/underneath line of seven.25 sacks on PrizePicks.
Verse recorded 4.5 sacks as a rookie final season, tied for ninety fifth within the NFL. With that mentioned, there are causes to consider that quantity will likely be considerably greater in 2025. Here are some issues to think about and why it’s price taking a flier on this prop this season.
Betting Sack Props: What to think about
It is vital to keep away from getting caught up within the ultimate box-score stats when betting sack props. A participant sitting at or close to the highest of the league in sacks doesn’t essentially imply they had been the most effective (or perhaps a nice) cross rusher that yr.
In easy phrases, sack totals, similar to different stats in soccer, could be deceptive. The “pink flag” is when a defender has a excessive sack complete however a low pressure-to-sack ratio. Consistently profitable reps and attending to the quarterback (strain) is a much better indicator of an amazing cross rusher than racking up sacks, which frequently comes all the way down to luck relatively than ability. Think about quarterbacks scrambling out of bounds for zero-yard good points or sliding behind the road of scrimmage on designed passes — in these instances, the closest defender will get credit score for the “sack.”
On the opposite hand, some gamers generate strain at a excessive charge however don’t rank close to the highest in sacks. These traits are likely to normalize: Eventually, producing pressures leads to sacks, similar to the shortcoming to generate strain in the end results in decrease sack numbers.
Here are some notable examples lately:
2021: The Bears’ Robert Quinn completed second within the NFL with 18.5 sacks on 47 pressures for the season, an extremely eye-popping pressure-to-sack ratio. Maxx Crosby led the league with 101 pressures however managed solely eight sacks.
When 2022’s sack props got here out, Quinn was set at 10.25 and Crosby at 9.75. That yr, Quinn completed the season with one sack (in 13 video games) and Crosby tallied 12.5. These had been two props that had been price concentrating on when taking a deeper dive into the metrics.
2022: The Dolphins’ Jaelan Phillips completed the season with seven sacks, however his elite 90.1 PFF pass-rushing grade ranked fifth amongst edge defenders and his 77 pressures had been the seventh most.
In 2023, his over/underneath sack prop was 8.75, one thing I highlighted in an article that explored causes to guess on the over. Phillips bought off to a gradual begin that season (0.5 sacks by way of his first three video games) however quickly heated up, recording a sack in 5 straight video games (six complete) earlier than struggling a season-ending torn Achilles in Week 12. The guess didn’t hit due to the harm, however that’s at all times a threat. Looking again, it was nonetheless learn on the guess and one I’d make once more underneath comparable circumstances.
2023: The Texans’ Will Anderson Jr. received Defensive Rookie of the Year honors after rating among the many high 25 edge defenders in PFF pass-rush grade (77.3), pressures (59) and win charge (16.3%). It was clear Anderson was getting higher because the season went on, as seven of his eight sacks (together with the playoffs) got here after Week 8.
In 2024, Anderson’s sack prop was 8.25, which was an attractive quantity when contemplating his sturdy second half of 2023 and total metrics from his rookie season. The Texans additionally signed Pro Bowler Danielle Hunter, one of many league’s most established cross rushers and a participant who would command a number of consideration reverse Anderson, liberating up the younger star for extra favorable one-on-one alternatives. Anderson completed the yr with 11 sacks regardless of lacking three video games.
Why guess over 7.25 sacks for Verse in 2025?
Verse was not solely the most effective rookie defensive lineman within the NFL final season, however among the finest within the league, interval. He established himself as one of many premier cross rushers, ending fourth within the league in pressures (77) and sixth in pass-rush win charge (19.6%). The 77 pressures path solely Nick Bosa’s 80 for essentially the most by any rookie in an everyday season within the PFF period (since 2006).
#Rams ED Jared Verse is working away with the Defensive Rookie of the Year award
– 5 pressures vs MIA offers him 44 for the season (sixth in NFL)
– Win proportion of 21.9% (4th in NFL)
– Sack in third straight recreation
– fifth in run protection grade at his place#RamsHome pic.twitter.com/h506us1iCi— Ryan Smith (@PFF_RyanSmith) November 12, 2024
Verse generated a minimum of three pressures in 15 of 16 video games for the season, excluding Week 18, when he performed simply 11 snaps (nonetheless produced two pressures). He continued his sturdy play into the postseason, recording 12 pressures and two sacks throughout the Rams’ two playoff video games. This confirmed consistency week to week, relatively than a few blow-up spots that we see from gamers at instances, which is much less predictable shifting ahead.
Four different edge defenders recorded a minimum of 70 pressures final season: Myles Garrett, Trey Hendrickson, Jonathan Greenard and Micah Parsons. All 4 notched a minimum of 12 sacks for the yr, which makes Verse’s 4.5 an outlier, given how a lot strain he was producing frequently.
Win charge is one other nice indicator of how nicely a cross rusher is acting from rep to rep. Including the playoffs, Verse’s 19.7% win charge for a single season has been topped by solely 10 edge defenders over the previous 5 years.
Highest Pass-Rush Win Rates Among Edge Defenders in 2024
PFF pass-rush grade on true cross units was one more class through which Verse was elite. His 90.6 mark tied for sixth greatest amongst edge defenders with T.J. Watt. The deeper you dive into Verse’s pass-rushing profile final yr, the extra causes there are to like his outlook for 2025 and past.
The 24-year-old has already obtained excessive reward from his fellow opponents. Recently retired Pro Bowl deal with Terron Armstead mentioned, “I’m OK with by no means seeing that younger man once more in my life. … He will likely be a Defensive Player of the Year one among nowadays. Mark my phrases.”
When Verse reaches his full potential, double-digit sack numbers will probably be his ground. Based on what we noticed in his rookie season, there’s each purpose to consider that would start in 2025.