Wide receiver breakout candidates for 2025

Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals

The first and perhaps most blatant alternative for a breakout season heading into Year 2, Harrison undoubtedly dissatisfied fantasy managers final 12 months after being a fringe first-round decide, relying on the format, as he completed the season as the general PPR WR33. Compared to his rookie friends Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr. and Ladd McConkey, Harrison’s disappointing end was much more amplified, however there may be nonetheless loads of cause to imagine that he can ship an enormous 12 months in 2025.

Continue as a high-end target-earner

Harrison’s 114 whole targets as a rookie ranked among the many top-20 huge receivers within the league, which yielded a mean fantasy level whole of 237.2 PPR factors amongst that group of huge receivers as an entire. Even for the huge receivers rating 14-20 (excluding Harrison), the typical fantasy level whole for that many targets was 214.4 PPR factors, nonetheless properly above Harrison’s 181.2 as a rookie. There was an excessive amount of meat left on the bone with Harrison’s fantasy potential as a rookie, however not all of that was his fault. 

The greatest detriment to Harrison’s fantasy potential in 2024 was that he had simply an eighth percentile catchable goal fee (59.3%) for his place, and as lined right here, left extra fantasy factors on the desk than another participant at his place consequently. Luckily for Harrison, catchable goal fee tends to fluctuate year-to-year, as it isn’t a secure metric, even with the identical quarterback, so what issues greater than the rest is his function within the offense, his quantity of targets, and his general expertise.

Deliver on his top-five NFL draft capital potential

Coming out of school, Harrison profiled as top-of-the-line huge receiver prospects in recent times, delivering a 91.3 profession PFF receiving grade (94th percentile amongst WR prospects since 2019) and a couple of.98 profession yards per route run (93rd percentile). He was chosen fourth general consequently. While a number of of Harrison’s 2024 draft class friends have already surpassed him in ADP, it’s not too late for him to catch up and probably leapfrog his means again to the highest of that mountain with a robust 2025.

Harrison and Trey McBride are the 2 clear high choices on this passing recreation, and each can coexist as top-tier fantasy choices so long as Kyler Murray continues to bounce again after his injury-shortened 2022 and 2023 seasons, getting again to being a high passer within the league. Murray posted his greatest passing grade (77.9) since 2021, which was a top-12 mark on the place and rather more indicative of his skill to permit Harrison to thrive than the uncatchable goal fee talked about earlier. Considering the participant and the profile as a prospect, it doesn’t take a lot stretch of the creativeness to venture Harrison to have a greater season general in Year 2, each when it comes to his receiving and fantasy manufacturing, with the potential to complete as a WR1 in 2025.

Marvin Harrison Jr.’s WR ranks in 2024:

Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears

Odunze is the opposite top-10 huge receiver decide from the 2024 NFL Draft class whose rookie season wasn’t top-10 draft decide high quality. However, Odunze’s expectations had been additionally a lot decrease contemplating that each DJ Moore and Keenan Allen had been in place as the highest two targets within the offense, which might have Odunze third within the pecking order at greatest. This was the case in 2024, however now with Keenan Allen gone and Moore coming off a career-worst PFF receiving grade season (73.3), Odunze has the potential to complete 2025 because the Bears’ WR1.

Fend off all of the goal competitors

Becoming the WR1 in Chicago is quite a bit simpler mentioned than accomplished, as there are arguably extra mouths to feed this 12 months than there have been even throughout Odunze’s rookie season. The Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III additions within the draft are vital to the passing offense, however Odunze now has NFL expertise and seniority in his favor to get the primary crack at these beginning reps to be able to construct extra of a rapport with quarterback Caleb Williams. 

Of course, these new additions have the favorable incontrovertible fact that they had been chosen by the brand new regime and never simply inherited like Odunze, however new head coach Ben Johnson has praised Odunze as a participant he’s been impressed with post-NFL draft. Odunze will be the odd man out given the brand new regime’s funding in different gamers, however contemplating his expertise and his prospect profile popping out of school as a top-10 decide coming into simply his second NFL season, he’s simply as more likely to be a first-rate beneficiary of this new and improved Chicago offense.

Fitting into Ben Johnson’s offense

Odunze’s match on this new offense is essential to his fantasy success, as he’ll possible begin the 12 months reverse DJ Moore because the crew’s WR2. Depending on how properly he learns the brand new playbook and is ready to translate that information into success on the sphere, that function may even develop to finally overtake Moore because the WR1, taking part in the same function on this offense as Amon-Ra St. Brown did for the Detroit Lions these previous few seasons below Johnson.

St. Brown’s function in Johnson’s offense has required a little bit greater than half of the participant’s routes to return from the slot, and whereas Moore is often nearer to the typical slot receiver’s dimension, Odunze shouldn’t be dominated out of that spot. In 2024, Odunze ran the next fee of routes from the slot than Moore and was much more efficient in that function, as highlighted within the chart beneath.

It’s a small pattern, however on simply 39 extra routes than Moore, Odunze was undeniably extra environment friendly out of the slot in his rookie season. Adding within the potential Year 2 growth, an improved offense below Ben Johnson and one other 12 months of rapport with Caleb Williams – who will even be trying to enhance this season – Odunze must be thought-about a stable wager for a breakout 2025 season and vastly enhance on his comparatively quiet rookie 12 months.

Rome Odunze’s WR ranks in 2024:

Marvin Mims, Denver Broncos

Mims isn’t the high-pedigree huge receiver prospect that Harrison and Odunze are, however he’s a second-round decide from the 2023 class that has proven some flashes lately on a crew in want of a constant second choice to emerge. Mims was one of the best deep-threat receiver within the 2023 class, and coming into Year 3, Mims must show he’s greater than only a deep goal. If he’s capable of show efficient in all areas of the sphere, he might turn out to be a constant fantasy starter in 2025.

Earn a constant function in Sean Payton’s offense

Mims’ potential has all the time solely flashed in small samples as he awaited a chance to tackle a bigger function. As a rookie, Mims delivered an enormous efficiency in simply his second NFL recreation, delivering 113 yards and a landing on simply two receptions and 6 routes, highlighting his elite deep risk skill. Unfortunately, the remainder of his rookie season was much less constant as a result of his function didn’t develop sufficient till the second half of the 12 months, when his route share jumped from 31% to 56% of the crew’s routes whereas his targets went from 1.8 per recreation to 2.3 per recreation – nonetheless removed from fantasy-relevant nevertheless.

Through the primary half of his second season, Mims’ function nonetheless hadn’t improved sufficient to make an impression for fantasy and had even reverted to the place he was firstly of his rookie 12 months. Mims was averaging simply 25% of the crew’s routes from Weeks 1-10 whereas seeing simply 1.9 targets per recreation. All hope of a Mims breakout appeared misplaced, however the second half of final season noticed him enhance his route share to 41% along with a profession excessive 3.9 targets per recreation from Weeks 11 by way of the crew’s lone playoff recreation. 

Ideally, Mims will play over 70% of the crew’s routes in Year 3 for this breakout to return to fruition – and this was the case within the crew’s lone playoff recreation final season – so Payton has proven confidence in him throughout the crew’s most necessary recreation of the 12 months. The different side that hints on the crew desirous to get Mims extra concerned was his excessive goal fee, which additionally elevated to an elite 28.5% by way of the second half of final season, up from simply 15.0% by way of his first year-and-a-half within the league. Maintaining a excessive goal fee on a bigger workload is all the things fantasy managers can ask for in relation to a breakout season for Mims, nevertheless it received’t essentially come simply.

Become greater than only a deep risk

Helping Mims earn a bigger function and the next goal fee late final season was that he turned greater than only a deep risk within the Broncos offense. Through the primary year-and-a-half of his profession, Mims noticed a 13.9-yard common depth of goal however in that second-half stretch in 2024, that quantity dropped to simply 4.8, which performed an enormous half in enhancing his general goal fee.

Getting Mims extra concerned created dividends for the offense as properly, as his targets elevated, so did his general effectivity to the purpose the place he averaged an elite 3.63 yards per route run from Week 11 by way of the crew’s playoff recreation final season, up from simply 1.32 to start out his profession. Even on the decrease common depth of goal, Mims turned the final word weapon with the ball in his arms, main all huge receivers in yards after the catch per reception (12.3) final season – 3.8 yards per reception extra than the subsequent closest participant.

Mims introduced in 88% of his receptions 10 yards or fewer from the road of scrimmage in 2024 because the crew bought him extra concerned within the display screen recreation, recognizing his effectiveness with the ball in his arms, as he ranked second among the many league’s huge receivers in display screen targets (27). Mims’ effectivity, dimension and function within the offense make him probably the most distinctive huge receiver on this Broncos’ corps. While there could also be a rotation amongst quite a lot of the opposite comparable choices, Mims has the chance to earn a extra constant function and keep on the sphere as the one sub-6-foot starting-caliber receiver on the crew, whereas additionally proving to be by far probably the most environment friendly together with his touches in 2024. If Mims is ready to construct on his nice stretch of play in 2024, he’s in an ideal place to interrupt out as a constant fantasy choice in 2025.

Marvin Mims’ WR ranks in 2024: